On October 13, 1999, the European Commission recommended that accession negotiations with Lithuania, as well as other second group countries, be started. It is very likely that after the Helsinki summit endorses the proposals from the Commission actual membership negotiations between Lithuania and the EU will start in spring of 2000.
And what comes next? An invitation to begin entry talks is, of course, very important from a political standpoint. On the other hand, the start of negotiations will place an additional burden on public administration in Lithuania, given that it is often unable to deal with integration-related tasks. This will be a true test of the capacities of public administration in Lithuania, especially its ability to co-ordinate the preparation of negotiation positions on separate chapters and to estimate the likely effects of assuming the obligations of EU membership.
The latter is of particular importance. So far, no comprehensive analysis has been made in this area, except for some general studies on the effects of EU membership on Lithuania and several sectoral studies. The clear prospect of membership negotiations provides a strong incentive to carry out impact analyses for each area and the economy as a whole. This analysis has a policy-oriented dimension. It is an essential motivation behind it, though not the only one. It is increasingly necessary to enlighten the public about the likely effects of membership on society as a whole and specific groups in particular. Finally, the economic integration that has been taking place since mid-1990s has affected economic processes and policy making in Lithuania.
The implementation of integration measures, stipulated in bilateral trade agreements and recommended by the European Commission in its Opinion and Regular Reports, is increasingly affecting various sectors of the economy. These range from trade in textiles and other goods, competition policy, and the development of energy sector strategy, to veterinary standards or rules of consumer protection. To ensure successful entry talks and to ensure that the accession agreement “meets the interests of the Lithuanian population,” as the government’s programme has it. We should have at least a rough understanding of the impact that integration measures will have on the country’s economy.
Understandably, the EU acquis communautaire must be implemented in Lithuania directly and without any permanent derogations. But the government has some leeway in defining priorities and, in most cases, in choosing the methods of implementing the objectives specified by EU directives. Also, it has a right to request transition periods in case of costly implementation of membership obligations. However, this requires that the effects of integration on the country as a whole, and on separate areas or social groups, be assessed.
Such an evaluation and formation of negotiation positions could have been launched with the recent approval of a medium-term strategy of the Lithuanian economy in the context of integration into the EU. However, the said strategy did not even raise the question about the likely effects of integration on the country’s economy. Just as before, it simply contains laws and decrees that are to be enforced in order to implement EU norms in Lithuania. Their implications, interplay, and priorities were ignored. Some of the planned measures are even at odds with the aims of integration. Admittedly, internal discrepancies were eliminated from the last draft of the strategy, but this does not mean that it will be useful; rather, it means that it will not be harmful to the Lithuanian government.
One may wonder whether such documents are the result of a continuous rush and the inability to contemplate the integration with its goals and instruments in order to find a proper link between them and other ongoing transition processes in Lithuania. Are the capacities of public administration in Lithuania inadequate? Are activities of different state institutions poorly co-ordinated? Maybe the pressure from local interest groups is at issue? There are many answers to these questions, but it would be hard to deny that it is the European Commission that has best understood the interests of Lithuania so far. And it is not a charity drive that explains its interest in the policies that have been pursued in Lithuania, but first and foremost, the recognition that the functioning of the EU itself will depend on the degree of preparation of the new member.
So what issues should be on top of the agenda today? First of all, it is important to distinguish the general economic policy of Lithuania which, regardless of integration, should consistently reduce direct government involvement in economic affairs and secure a stable economic environment and favourable conditions for business growth and restructuring. All this is also in line with EU membership requirements. Furthermore, unsound economic policies of the Lithuanian government have in some cases been prevented by possible criticism from the Commission. Business regulation is another important area. It is in this respect that EU membership translates into Lithuania’s enforcement of regulatory rules that are used in the European Union and prompted by its needs. How will this affect the functioning of the Lithuania economy? Sooner or later, this question will have to be answered, and the sooner the better.
There is another area that is being overlooked although its importance is undeniable, especially when the time comes to say “yes” or “no” to EU membership. This is public education about integration processes. True, some steps have been made in this field: information is being disseminated both by the European Committee and the delegation of the Commission. Yet, for the time being, there is a lack of general knowledge about the EU and Lithuania’s integration. The effects of membership will soon become as important as ever. Very little is known about them so far. The economic motives of the integration have never been among the central considerations in the EU nor in Lithuania’s goal of joining the EU. But the economic implications of membership are already quite evident. How they are to be perceived and how to turn them in the desired direction should be primary concerns of the Lithuanian government.
